The past two weeks have not been kind to Qatar. The strange little appendage off the Arabian Peninsula has had its landward side cut-off by everyone’s favorite neighbors, the Saudis. They also got a big middle finger up from Arab heavyweight Egypt, and other neighborhood states Bahrain, Yemen (such as it is) and the UAE. Mind you, this is a state that imports almost 100% of its food. So this is going to come to a head, quite rapidly.

Some of the oddities you will find about this place;

  • 90% of the people there are NOT Qatari (which is why over a quarter of the population is Hindu or Christian – think imported labor).
  • Only a bit over a quarter of the populace are women
  • YUUUGE natural gas reserves
  • Oh yeah, US CENTCOM happens to have an interest in the area (I was too stupid to take a 4 day pass and go there, when I was in Iraq in 2008)

This has all the elements of a perfectly toxic brew of regional influence struggles, a possible humanitarian disaster and all sorts of nasty knock-on effects.

I will have to say, I was quite surprised this came to a head so quickly. I think the Saudis are striking while the anti-Iran Trump iron is hot. The war in Yemen is not going well, so they figure it is time to snip off one supporter of the Houthi rebels.

Keep an eye on this one folks – it could get damned ugly, real fast if one side or the other doesn’t give, soon.